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- DATE: JAN. 25, 1991 11:30 REPORT:
- TO: SPL
- FOR:
- CC:
- BUREAU: EAST
- BY: MELISSA LUDTKE
- IN: BOSTON
- SLUG: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
-
- CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS:
-
- Matthew Meselson, a biology professor at Harvard and an
- expert on chemcial and biological weapons, downplays the
- environmental impact caused either by bombing
- manufacturing facilities or having them used by Hussein
- as weapons. "No huge environmental effects," he says,
- "Nothing to write banner headlines about."
-
- Attacks on chemical weapons plants could result in the
- release of mustard or nerve gas. If people were nearby --
- and if they did not have gas masks -- the dose could be
- lethal. If a few tons is released, it might contaminate a
- few square kilometers; if a few thousands tons (the upper
- limit of what it could be) were released, it might
- contaminate a few hundred kilometers for a brief time,
- and then go away. Nerve agents do not persist in the
- environment for any great length of time. They are
- diluted out in the atmosphere and decompose chemically
- and disappear. "Beyond a certain distance there would be
- no environmental consequence," Meselson says. But before
- the gas decom-poses, any vertebrate and insect life would
- be killed - since animals don't wear gas masks.
-
- Mustard gas, in its liquid form, will stay on the land
- for quite a while, and might give rise to localized areas
- of deep mustard concentration that could last for a long
- time. But the environmental effects would not be
- catastrophic, nor long lasting.
-
- If germ weapon plants were hit, it is quite possible
- that spores of anthrax (for example) could be spread
- around a local area. Those spores can remain in the soil
- for a long time. And though the land could be
- decontaminated later on, it would be an immediate hazard
- to animals. In Meselson's opinion, the anthrax would not
- pose a problem for humans since it wouldn't get up in the
- air enough to cause damage. "But if there were a lot of
- spores on the ground and animals ate them, you could get
- a lot of anthrax in animals," he says. However, Meselson
- reminds us that anthrax is endemic to many countries
- already, including Iraq. And in 1976 an outbreak of
- anthrax in Texas killed hundreds of horses and sheep.
-
- When asked to assess the damage from an Iraqi chemical
- or bio- logical attack, Meselson spoke about what we know
- about Hussein's use of these weapons against Iran. In
- that war, Hussein seldom used these weapons, and when he
- did it was against specific troops, the Basij army, a
- contingent of inexperienced, poorly equipped forces who
- did not have gas masks. Hussein did not use it against
- troops which were equipped with gas masks. The reason:
- "against professional, well equipped forces, it is not a
- very effective weapon." When a gas attack does occur, it
- is only necessary to wear protective clothing for a brief
- time, and gas masks are kept on only for a matter of
- hours.
-
- "Saddam would only use gas against primitive troops or
- if he had absolutely nothing else to fire," says
- Meselson, based on the lessons from the war with Iran.
- "Neither is true in this war. In a fast moving, mobile
- war every shot fired counts. If he fires gas and it is
- ineffective, those same rounds could have been used to
- stop a tank. It could actually help lose a war by firing
- gas."
-
- How long would the agents persist in the air, soil,
- water? The actual contamination of a battlefield is very
- brief. The sun comes out, the sand warms, the air rises
- off the sand and carries the vapors upwards, diluting
- it.
-
- Would areas be rendered uninhabitable, given any of
- these scenerios? "No, definitely not," says Meselson,
- "For a while I wouldn't go in myself, but uninhabitable.
- No. Artillery makes land pretty uninhabitable. Mines
- definitely make it uninhabitable. But in the sense that
- no one goes there for months or years. No."
-
- As for environmental damage, Meselson says: "I don't
- know the consequences of killing animals, insects, birds.
- They do not have gas masks, so they would die over tens
- of square kilometers. But they will repopulate."
-
- ENDIT
-